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Fifteen favourite fallacies

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3. "Growth always wins in the end/Value always wins in the end"

Some investment writers argue passionately that growth strategies always beat value in the end. Others state the opposite with equal conviction. Neither is (wholly) right. The 40 years' worth of data gathered by James O'Shaughnessy in his study 'What Works on Wall Street' indicates that:

  1. The best growth and value strategies worked equally well over the long term.
  2. The best growth strategies include value factors.
  3. Both types of strategy occasionally underperformed for long periods.

Some argue this entire debate is not just futile, but ridiculous.

"Growth and value investing are joined at the hip, says [Warren] Buffett. Value is the discounted present value of an investment's future cash flow; growth is simply a calculation used to determine value. Growth in sales, earnings and assets can either add or detract from an investment's value. Growth can add to the value when the return on invested capital is above average...However, growth for a business earning low returns on capital can be detrimental to shareholders."

Robert Hagstrom, The Warren Buffett Way.

Whichever strategy you follow, you should choose it because it suits you, not because of the extravagant claims made for it in the latest financial best-seller.

Recommend Reading

Quote

"I have witnessed hundreds of institutions and every type of investment philosophy imaginable over the last quarter century, and most of those that concentrate on the undervalued theory of stock selection invariably lag in the results produced when compared to the better money managers today."
William J. O'Neil



Quote

"The probabilities, the odds, the very laws of nature are tilted in favour of the value school."
Ralph Wanger



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