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Fifteen favourite fallacies

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8. "I've got to be in technology/biotechnology/telecoms etc"

Why? Warren Buffett has never been in any of those things, and is universally regarded as the most successful investor of all time. His advice is to stick to what you know. Develop a "circle of competence", he says, and stay within it. Once you stray outside that, you are taking big risks, because you do not know what you are doing, nor the value of what you are buying.

"But isn't technology (or biotechnology, or telecoms, or whatever) where the big money is?" Beware: the asset classes most private investors tend to get worked up about are those where the big money has already been made. Those who got in early, whether by luck or judgement, have done well. What makes you think you will do just as well by getting in now?

Usually, it is no more than the assumption that present trends will continue. But it tends to be precisely when you feel most confident of this that the trend is about to reverse. The moment you feel you simply have to get into the action generally marks the point of greatest risk in return for least reward.

The question is never: Will technology change the world? It always has done, and will continue to do so in future. The question is rather: Is investing in it more likely to make you above-average returns than lose you money? If so, you should invest.

There is only one overriding obligation you should acknowledge as an investor. Namely, to follow a strategy that delivers the best possible profits at a level of risk you find acceptable.

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