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Fifteen favourite fallacies

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2. "You've got to speculate to accumulate"

No, you haven't. Like many proverbs, this is obviously false when you pause to think about it. Most people have accumulated the bulk of their wealth through housebuying. Did they have to speculate to do it? Did you? Of course not. Instead, whenever you moved home, you had to go through a careful, step-by-step process of

It's just the same with share buying. Or rather, it should be. You would never have dreamed of slapping down a deposit on a house you had never even looked round. Yet this is what speculators do all the time with shares. They pile in and out of glamorous-sounding companies, often without knowing the first thing about their financial state or even their line of business.

And not only do they hope to make money - they actually expect to get rich quick. Yet the overwhelming probability is that they will do the opposite, because they do not realise the dangers they are running. Imagine what would have happened to your housing equity if you had traded frenziedly in and out of properties several times a year. You would either have handed over most of your gains to solicitors and estate agents, or worse, you would have overpaid and lost big money on your sales, instead of watching your equity accumulate as the value of your home rose over the years.

In just the same way, when buying shares you need to

  1. Calculate as carefully as possible the real value of what you are buying, in order to minimise the risk of overpaying
  2. Keep your transaction costs low, so that brokers, marketmakers and data providers do not make more from your investments than you do
  3. Wait for your decisions to pay off, or for it to become clear which are the bad decisions that need to be changed.

In short, you've got to calculate to accumulate. Then be patient. Aim to get rich slow.

Recommend Reading

 

Quote

"Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money becoming a little."
Fred Schwed



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