Mechanical methods can be helpful in deciding when to sell one stock and reinvest the cash in another, more attractive one.
Example
| Prospective P/E | Forecast EPS growth (%) | Prospective PEG | Price rise if PEG=1 (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NotSoGreatCo | 30 | 40 | 0.75 | 33 |
| ReallyGreatCo | 20 | 40 | 0.5 | 100 |
In this case, if your rule is to sell when the PEG equals 1.0, you can hope for a further 33% appreciation in the price of NotSoGreatCo, but a potential 100% rise in that of ReallyGreatCo. That differential makes a sale and reinvestment well worth considering.
But here again, qualitative judgments must be made. Maybe NotSoGreatCo deserves its higher rating, because its earnings are more reliable. Perhaps ReallyGreatCo is experiencing only a short-term surge in growth that will soon fade away, together with its P/E. And so on.
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